What Does it Mean to be ‘On-Track to Graduate’?
This school success accountability indicator measures the percentage of first-time high school freshmen who earned at least 25% of their total graduation credits by the beginning of their sophomore year. In the 2013-14 school year, the Oregon Department of Education (ODE) began collecting data on 9th grade “on-track to graduate” status. In the 2019-20 school year, over 85% of 9th graders were on-track to graduate. Oregon’s goal is that 95% of all 9th grade students would reach on-track to graduate status by the 2024-25 school year.
Why is Being ‘On-Track to Graduate’ Important?
Initial ODE research on 9th grade on-track status shows negative associations between students who are off-track to graduate and multiple education outcomes. For example, an ODE study of 11th grade assessments in 2015-16 showed that on-track students met the English Language Arts standards at nearly twice the rate of students who were off-track. On-track students met math standards at more than 5 times the rate of students who were off-track.
Additionally, a preliminary ODE study showed that on-track students were more than twice as likely to graduate within 4 years as their off-track peers, after adjusting for demographic factors. Graduation rates vary for on-track students in different demographic groups. For instance, on-track graduation rates are below the overall average for economically disadvantaged students (86.2%), English learners (81.6%), and students identified as American Indian/Alaska Native (82.9%).
The relationship between students who are off-track and decreased education outcomes suggests that this measure could be an important early factor to identify students needing additional education supports. Similarly, on-track students with certain characteristics may need additional or specifically targeted supports to increase their likelihood of graduating high school.
To learn more about the 9th Grade On-Track to Graduate data presented here, check out our Technical Dictionary.
To learn more about 9th Grade On-Track to Graduate, please visit the Oregon Department of Education:
Please remember the following
- OCID only includes children born in Oregon since 2001; ideally, the dataset will be expanded over time to represent all of the children in Oregon.
- To display race and ethnicity categories consistently across multiple data sources, OCID currently combines information from vital statistics, education, Medicaid, and child welfare records. Visit our Race and Ethnicity Data Overview to learn more.
- To protect the identities of individuals, OCID only shows results for populations; where populations are too small and could risk revealing identifiable information, OCID displays the result as “Suppressed.”
Ready to explore the data?
The indicator display below provides two views:
- A dashboard view for a structured way to look at the indicator by selecting a geography and then 1-2 other attributes; and,
- A “sandbox” view for freely exploring the various attributes.
Please visit the About OCID and Explore OCID Population pages before exploring the data. For details on the indicator, attributes, data sources, and limitations, please visit the Well-being Dashboard Technical Dictionary.
What explains any trends and disparities?
We don’t know yet. The Dashboard shows descriptive data, not causal relationships. In depth analyses are needed to understand why disparities or trends occur.
The OCID team conducts targeted analyses using advanced statistical methods to shed light on policy questions prioritized by the Governance Committee. These analyses aim to provide Oregon-specific and timely information for policymakers, allowing them to take a data-driven approach to improving outcomes for Oregon’s children. Sign up below to receive OCID updates.
Suggested citation: Center for Evidence-based Policy, Oregon Health & Science University. 9th Grade On-Track to Graduate dashboard. Oregon Child Integrated Dataset (OCID) website. https://www.ocid-cebp.org/outcome/3163/. Published February 5, 2021.
The Center for Evidence-based Policy partners with the Center for Health Systems Effectiveness, also at Oregon Health & Science University, on dashboard analytics.